XCA1 - Model evaluation

This cross-cutting activity (XCA) will coordinates model evaluation across the different core themes (CTs). In particular, we will coordinate the evaluation of the new process parameterizations (CT1) and the new cross-component couplings (CT2) introduced into the project Earth System Models. We will ensure key new diagnostics developed in the project are implemented into ESMValTool, which will enablie these diagnostics to be used beyond ESM2025. Where possible, new evaluation methods, such as machine learning causal discovery techniques and the most up-to-date emergent constraints, will also be applied. The resulting information will guide the analysis of climate and Earth system feedbacks and the characterisation of model uncertainty conducted in CT3 and XCA3.

Our ultimate goal is to perform both process level evaluation (of the parameterizations developed in CT1) and a top-down evaluation of large-scale metrics of model performance. Our aim is to ensure the ESMs get “the right results for the right reasons”.